Western allies receive increasingly ‘sobering’ updates on Ukraine’s counteroffensive: ‘This is the most difficult time of the war’
Weeks into Ukraine’s highly anticipated counteroffensive, Western officials describe increasingly “sobering” assessments about Ukrainian forces’ ability to retake significant territory, four senior US and western officials briefed on the latest intelligence told CNN.
“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks,
if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make
progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s
extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat told CNN.
“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the
challenges they face,” said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who
recently returned from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian
armored forces. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”
The primary challenge for Ukrainian forces is the continued difficulty of breaking through Russia’s
multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of
thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces have
incurred staggering losses there, leading Ukrainian commanders to hold back
some units to regroup and reduce casualties.
“Russians have a number of defensive lines and they
[Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line,” said a senior
Western diplomat. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several
weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these
last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with
more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard.”
A senior US official said the US recognizes the difficulties Ukrainian forces are facing, though
retains hope for renewed progress.
“We all recognize this is going harder and slower than
anyone would like – including the Ukrainians – but we still believe there’s
time and space for them to be able make progress,” this official said.
Multiple officials said the approach of fall, when weather
and fighting conditions are expected to worsen, gives Ukrainian forces a
limited window to push forward.
In addition, Western officials say the slow progress has
exposed the difficulty of transforming Ukrainian forces into combined
mechanized fighting units, sometimes with as few as eight weeks of training on
western-supplied tanks and other new weapons systems. The lack of progress on
the ground is one reason Ukrainian forces have been striking more often inside
Russian territory “to try and show Russian vulnerability,” said a senior US
military official.
Ukraine’s armed forces chief, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, told
US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley that Ukrainian forces
are step by step creating conditions for advancing. Zaluzhnyi added that he had
told Milley that Ukraine’s defenses were steadfast.
“Our soldiers are doing their best. The enemy is conducting
active assault actions in a number of directions, but is not succeeding,”
Zaluzhnyi told Milley, according to a read out issued by the Ukrainian
government.
Talking about the situation in the south, where Ukrainian
forces have struggled to gain ground, Zaluzhnyi said, “Heavy fighting
continues, Ukrainian troops step by step continue to create conditions for
advancing. The initiative is on our side.”
These latest assessments represent a marked change from the
optimism at the start of the counteroffensive. These officials say those
expectations were “unrealistic” and are now contributing to pressure on Ukraine
from some in the West to begin peace negotiations, including considering the possibility
of territorial concessions.
“Putin is waiting for this. He can sacrifice bodies and buy
time,” Quigley said.
Some officials fear the widening gap between expectations
and results will spark a “blame game” among Ukrainian officials and their western
supporters, which may create divisions within the alliance which has remained
largely intact nearly two years into the war.
“The problem, of course, here is the prospect of the blame
game that the Ukrainians would then blame it on us,” said a senior western
diplomat.
Last month at the Aspen Security Forum, Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky pointed to the slow arrival of more advanced weapons
systems from the West as reason for Ukrainian forces’ slow progress so far.
“We did plan to start [the counteroffensive] in spring, but
we didn’t,” Zelensky said. “Because frankly, we have not enough munitions, and
armaments, and not enough properly trained brigades. I mean properly trained in
these weapons.”
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